Calibrating Hedonic Pricing Model for Private Highrise Property with GWR Method

1. Quick Recap

In previous sections we have seen how to

  • handle geospatial and aspatial data

  • plot choropleth math

  • compute various types of spatial weights and weight matrix

  • determine hotspot and coldspot areas

  • measure global and local measures of spatial autocorrelation

  • delineate homogeneous region using spatially constrained techniques

2. Introduction

The objective of this study is to Calibrate Hedonic Pricing Model for Private Highrise Property in Singapore using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) Method

What is Geographically Weighted Regression?

It is a spatial statistical technique that takes non-stationary variables into consideration (e.g., climate; demographic factors; physical environment characteristics) and models the local relationships between these independent variables and an outcome of interest (also known as dependent variable).

Geographically Weighted Regression

3. Glimpse of Steps

Some of the important steps performed in this study are as follows

  • importing geospatial data using appropriate function(s) of sf package,

  • importing csv file using appropriate function of readr package,

  • converting aspatial dataframe into sf object

  • performing exploratory data analysis

  • performing simple and multiple linear regression techniques

  • building a hedonic price model using GWR method

4. Data

Following two data sets are used:

  • URA Master Plan subzone boundary in shapefile format (i.e. MP14_SUBZONE_WEB_PL)

  • condo_resale_2015 in csv format (i.e. condo_resale_2015.csv)

5.Deep Dive into Map Analysis

5.1 Installing libraries and Importing files

p_load function pf pacman package is used to install and load sf all necessary packages into R environment.

  • sf, rgdal and spdep - Spatial data handling

  • tidyverse, especially readr, ggplot2 and dplyr - Attribute data handling

  • tmap -Choropleth mapping

  • olsrr - Ordinary Least Square(OLS) method and performing diagnostics tests

  • GWmodel - geographical weighted family of models

  • corrplot - multivariate data visualisation and analysis

The code chunk below installs and launches these R packages into R environment.

Loading packages
pacman::p_load(olsrr, corrplot, ggpubr, 
               sf,spdep, GWmodel, tmap, 
               tidyverse, gtsummary,patchwork, ggthemes)

The code chunk below is used to import MP_SUBZONE_WEB_PL shapefile by using st_read() of sf packages.

Importing data
mpsz = st_read(dsn = "data/geospatial", 
               layer = "MP14_SUBZONE_WEB_PL")
Reading layer `MP14_SUBZONE_WEB_PL' from data source 
  `D:\raveenaclr\Geospatial Analytics\Hands-on_Ex\data\geospatial' 
  using driver `ESRI Shapefile'
Simple feature collection with 323 features and 15 fields
Geometry type: MULTIPOLYGON
Dimension:     XY
Bounding box:  xmin: 2667.538 ymin: 15748.72 xmax: 56396.44 ymax: 50256.33
Projected CRS: SVY21
Importing data
condo_resale = read_csv("data/aspatial/Condo_resale_2015.csv")

5.2 Data Wrangling

The code chunk below updates the newly imported mpsz with the correct ESPG code (i.e. 3414)

Assigning correct projection
mpsz_svy21 <- st_transform(mpsz, 3414)

Currently, the condo_resale tibble data frame is aspatial. We will convert it to a sf object. The code chunk below converts condo_resale data frame into a simple feature data frame by using st_as_sf() of sf packages.

converting projection
condo_resale.sf <- st_as_sf(condo_resale,
                            coords = c("LONGITUDE", "LATITUDE"),
                            crs=4326) %>%
  st_transform(crs=3414)

5.3 Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA)

What is the distribution of Condo selling price?

Histogram-Selling Price
h1 <- ggplot(data=condo_resale.sf, 
              aes(x=`SELLING_PRICE`,
                  y= ..density..)) +
      geom_histogram(bins=20, 
                     color="black", 
                     fill="coral")+
      geom_density(color="black",
                   alpha=0.5) +
      theme(panel.background= element_blank())

The figure above reveals a right skewed distribution. This means that more condominium units were transacted at relative lower prices. Tghis can be normalised by using log transformation.

The code chunk below is used to derive a new variable called LOG_SELLING_PRICE by using a log transformation on the variable SELLING_PRICE. It is performed using mutate() of dplyr package.

Histogram-Selling Price
condo_resale.sf <- condo_resale.sf %>%
                   mutate(`LOG_SELLING_PRICE` = log(SELLING_PRICE))

h2 <- ggplot(data=condo_resale.sf, 
             aes(x=`LOG_SELLING_PRICE`,
                 y= ..density..)) +
      geom_histogram(bins=20, 
                     color="black", 
                     fill="coral")+
      geom_density(color="black",
                   alpha=0.5)+
      theme(panel.background= element_blank())

Let us compare the distribution before and after performing log transformation

Comaprison
h1 <- h1 + labs(title= "Raw values")
h2 <- h2 + labs(title = "Log transformation")

ggarrange(h1, h2, ncol=2)

Now let us view the distribution for multiple variables

The code chunk below is used to multiple histograms. Then, ggarrange() is used to organised these histogram into a 3 columns by 4 rows small multiple plot.

Multiple histograms
AREA_SQM <- ggplot(data=condo_resale.sf, 
                   aes(x= `AREA_SQM`,
                   y= ..density..)) + 
            geom_histogram(bins=20, 
                           color="black", 
                           fill="coral")+
            geom_density(color="black",
                         alpha=0.5)+
            theme(panel.background= element_blank())

AGE <- ggplot(data=condo_resale.sf, 
              aes(x= `AGE`,
                  y= ..density..)) +
       geom_histogram(bins=20, 
                      color="black", 
                      fill="coral")+
            geom_density(color="black",
                         alpha=0.5)+
            theme(panel.background= element_blank())

PROX_CBD <- ggplot(data=condo_resale.sf, 
                   aes(x= `PROX_CBD`,
                       y= ..density..)) +
            geom_histogram(bins=20, 
                           color="black", 
                           fill="coral")+
            geom_density(color="black",
                         alpha=0.5)+
            theme(panel.background= element_blank())

PROX_CHILDCARE <- ggplot(data=condo_resale.sf,
                         aes(x= `PROX_CHILDCARE`,
                             y= ..density..)) + 
                  geom_histogram(bins=20,
                                 color="black", 
                                 fill="coral")+
                  geom_density(color="black",
                                alpha=0.5)+
                  theme(panel.background= element_blank())

PROX_ELDERLYCARE <- ggplot(data=condo_resale.sf, 
                           aes(x= `PROX_ELDERLYCARE`,
                               y= ..density..)) +
                    geom_histogram(bins=20, 
                                   color="black", 
                                   fill="coral")+
                    geom_density(color="black",
                                 alpha=0.5)+
                    theme(panel.background= element_blank())

PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA <- ggplot(data=condo_resale.sf, 
                               aes(x= `PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA`,
                                   y= ..density..)) +
                        geom_histogram(bins=20, 
                                       color="black", 
                                       fill="coral")+
                        geom_density(color="black",
                                     alpha=0.5)+
                        theme(panel.background= element_blank())

PROX_HAWKER_MARKET <- ggplot(data=condo_resale.sf, 
                             aes(x= `PROX_HAWKER_MARKET`,
                                 y= ..density..)) +
                      geom_histogram(bins=20, 
                                     color="black", 
                                     fill="coral")+
                      geom_density(color="black",
                                   alpha=0.5)+
                      theme(panel.background= element_blank())

PROX_KINDERGARTEN <- ggplot(data=condo_resale.sf, 
                            aes(x= `PROX_KINDERGARTEN`,
                                y= ..density..)) +
                     geom_histogram(bins=20, 
                                    color="black", 
                                    fill="coral")+
                     geom_density(color="black",
                                  alpha=0.5)+
            theme(panel.background= element_blank())

PROX_MRT <- ggplot(data=condo_resale.sf, 
                   aes(x= `PROX_MRT`,
                       y= ..density..)) +
            geom_histogram(bins=20, 
                           color="black", 
                           fill="coral")+
            geom_density(color="black",
                         alpha=0.5)+
            theme(panel.background= element_blank())

PROX_PARK <- ggplot(data=condo_resale.sf, 
                    aes(x= `PROX_PARK`,
                        y= ..density..)) +
             geom_histogram(bins=20, 
                            color="black", 
                            fill="coral")+
             geom_density(color="black",
                          alpha=0.5)+
             theme(panel.background= element_blank())

PROX_PRIMARY_SCH <- ggplot(data=condo_resale.sf, 
                           aes(x= `PROX_PRIMARY_SCH`,
                               y= ..density..)) +
                    geom_histogram(bins=20, 
                                   color="black", 
                                   fill="coral")+
                    geom_density(color="black",
                                 alpha=0.5)+
                    theme(panel.background= element_blank())

PROX_TOP_PRIMARY_SCH <- ggplot(data=condo_resale.sf, 
                               aes(x= `PROX_TOP_PRIMARY_SCH`,
                                   y= ..density..)) +
                        geom_histogram(bins=20, 
                                       color="black", 
                                       fill="coral")+
                        geom_density(color="black",
                                     alpha=0.5)+
                        theme(panel.background= element_blank())

ggarrange(AREA_SQM, AGE, PROX_CBD, PROX_CHILDCARE, PROX_ELDERLYCARE, 
          PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA, PROX_HAWKER_MARKET, PROX_KINDERGARTEN, PROX_MRT,
          PROX_PARK, PROX_PRIMARY_SCH, PROX_TOP_PRIMARY_SCH,  
          ncol = 3, nrow = 4)

What is the geospatial distribution of condo prices in Singapore?

The code chunks below is used to create an interactive point symbol map.

Geospatial distribution
tm_shape(mpsz_svy21)+
  tm_polygons() +
tm_shape(condo_resale.sf) +  
  tm_dots(col = "SELLING_PRICE",
          alpha = 0.6,
          style="quantile") +
  tmap_options(check.and.fix = TRUE)+
  tmap_mode("view")+
  tm_view(set.zoom.limits = c(11,14))
tmap mode set to interactive viewing
Warning: The shape mpsz_svy21 is invalid (after reprojection). See
sf::st_is_valid

5.4 Hedonic Pricing Modelling in R

5.4.1 Simple Linear Regression Method

First, let us build a simple linear regression model by using SELLING_PRICE as the dependent variable and AREA_SQM as the independent variable.

Simple Linear Regression
condo.slr <- lm(formula=SELLING_PRICE ~ AREA_SQM, data = condo_resale.sf)
summary(condo.slr)

Call:
lm(formula = SELLING_PRICE ~ AREA_SQM, data = condo_resale.sf)

Residuals:
     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
-3695815  -391764   -87517   258900 13503875 

Coefficients:
             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
(Intercept) -258121.1    63517.2  -4.064 5.09e-05 ***
AREA_SQM      14719.0      428.1  34.381  < 2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

Residual standard error: 942700 on 1434 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared:  0.4518,    Adjusted R-squared:  0.4515 
F-statistic:  1182 on 1 and 1434 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16

Interpretation

R-squared of 0.4518 reveals that the simple regression model built is able to explain about 45% of the resale prices.

H0 (Null Hypothesis) - mean price is a good estimator of SELLING_PRICE

H1 (Alternative Hypothesis) - mean price is not a good estimator of SELLING_PRICE

  1. Since p-value is much smaller than 0.0001, we will reject the null hypothesis that mean is a good estimator of SELLING_PRICE.

  2. This will allow us to infer that simple linear regression model above is a good estimator of SELLING_PRICE.

  3. p-values of both the estimates of the Intercept and ARA_SQM are smaller than 0.001. In view of this, the null hypothesis of the B0 and B1 are equal to 0 will be rejected and so B0 and B1 are good parameter estimates.

Let us visualise the best fit curve on a scatterplot, using lm() as a method function in ggplot’s geometry as shown in the code chunk below.

Goodness of fit
ggplot(data=condo_resale.sf,  
       aes(x=`AREA_SQM`, y=`SELLING_PRICE`)) +
  geom_point() +
  geom_smooth(method = lm)+
  theme(panel.background= element_blank())
`geom_smooth()` using formula 'y ~ x'

We can see that there are a few statistical outliers with relatively high selling prices.

5.4.2 Multiple Linear Regression Method

Let us check if there is a multicollinearity phenomenon by executing correlation analysis. It is important to ensure that the indepdent variables used are not highly correlated to each other.

The code chunk below is used to plot a scatterplot matrix of the relationship between the independent variables in condo_resale data.frame.

Correlation Analysis
corrplot(cor(condo_resale[, 5:23]), 
         diag = FALSE, 
         order = "AOE",
         tl.pos = "td", 
         tl.cex = 0.5,
         method = "number", 
         type = "upper")

It is clear that Freehold is highly correlated to LEASE_99YEAR. Hence, let us include either one of them i.e. LEASE_99YEAR in the subsequent model building.

5.4.3 Hedonic pricing model using multiple linear regression method

The code chunk below using lm() to calibrate the multiple linear regression model.

Multiple Linear Regression
condo.mlr <- lm(formula = SELLING_PRICE ~ AREA_SQM + AGE    + 
                  PROX_CBD + PROX_CHILDCARE + PROX_ELDERLYCARE +
                  PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA + PROX_HAWKER_MARKET + PROX_KINDERGARTEN + 
                  PROX_MRT  + PROX_PARK + PROX_PRIMARY_SCH + 
                  PROX_TOP_PRIMARY_SCH + PROX_SHOPPING_MALL + PROX_SUPERMARKET + 
                  PROX_BUS_STOP + NO_Of_UNITS + FAMILY_FRIENDLY + FREEHOLD, 
                data=condo_resale.sf)
summary(condo.mlr)

Call:
lm(formula = SELLING_PRICE ~ AREA_SQM + AGE + PROX_CBD + PROX_CHILDCARE + 
    PROX_ELDERLYCARE + PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA + PROX_HAWKER_MARKET + 
    PROX_KINDERGARTEN + PROX_MRT + PROX_PARK + PROX_PRIMARY_SCH + 
    PROX_TOP_PRIMARY_SCH + PROX_SHOPPING_MALL + PROX_SUPERMARKET + 
    PROX_BUS_STOP + NO_Of_UNITS + FAMILY_FRIENDLY + FREEHOLD, 
    data = condo_resale.sf)

Residuals:
     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
-3475964  -293923   -23069   241043 12260381 

Coefficients:
                       Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
(Intercept)           481728.40  121441.01   3.967 7.65e-05 ***
AREA_SQM               12708.32     369.59  34.385  < 2e-16 ***
AGE                   -24440.82    2763.16  -8.845  < 2e-16 ***
PROX_CBD              -78669.78    6768.97 -11.622  < 2e-16 ***
PROX_CHILDCARE       -351617.91  109467.25  -3.212  0.00135 ** 
PROX_ELDERLYCARE      171029.42   42110.51   4.061 5.14e-05 ***
PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA   38474.53   12523.57   3.072  0.00217 ** 
PROX_HAWKER_MARKET     23746.10   29299.76   0.810  0.41782    
PROX_KINDERGARTEN     147468.99   82668.87   1.784  0.07466 .  
PROX_MRT             -314599.68   57947.44  -5.429 6.66e-08 ***
PROX_PARK             563280.50   66551.68   8.464  < 2e-16 ***
PROX_PRIMARY_SCH      180186.08   65237.95   2.762  0.00582 ** 
PROX_TOP_PRIMARY_SCH    2280.04   20410.43   0.112  0.91107    
PROX_SHOPPING_MALL   -206604.06   42840.60  -4.823 1.57e-06 ***
PROX_SUPERMARKET      -44991.80   77082.64  -0.584  0.55953    
PROX_BUS_STOP         683121.35  138353.28   4.938 8.85e-07 ***
NO_Of_UNITS             -231.18      89.03  -2.597  0.00951 ** 
FAMILY_FRIENDLY       140340.77   47020.55   2.985  0.00289 ** 
FREEHOLD              359913.01   49220.22   7.312 4.38e-13 ***
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

Residual standard error: 755800 on 1417 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared:  0.6518,    Adjusted R-squared:  0.6474 
F-statistic: 147.4 on 18 and 1417 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16

At 99% confidence interval, almost all the varibles are statistically significant except PROX_HAWKER_MARKET, PROX_KINDERGARTEN , PROX_TOP_PRIMARY_SCH.

5.4.4 Publication Quality Table: olsrr method

It is clear that not all the independent variables are statistically significant. Let us revise the model by removing those variables which are not statistically significant.

Revised model
condo.mlr1 <- lm(formula = SELLING_PRICE ~ AREA_SQM + AGE + 
                   PROX_CBD + PROX_CHILDCARE + PROX_ELDERLYCARE +
                   PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA + PROX_MRT  + PROX_PARK + 
                   PROX_PRIMARY_SCH + PROX_SHOPPING_MALL    + PROX_BUS_STOP + 
                   NO_Of_UNITS + FAMILY_FRIENDLY + FREEHOLD,
                 data=condo_resale.sf)
ols_regress(condo.mlr1)
                             Model Summary                               
------------------------------------------------------------------------
R                       0.807       RMSE                     755957.289 
R-Squared               0.651       Coef. Var                    43.168 
Adj. R-Squared          0.647       MSE                571471422208.591 
Pred R-Squared          0.638       MAE                      414819.628 
------------------------------------------------------------------------
 RMSE: Root Mean Square Error 
 MSE: Mean Square Error 
 MAE: Mean Absolute Error 

                                     ANOVA                                       
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    Sum of                                                      
                   Squares          DF         Mean Square       F         Sig. 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Regression    1.512586e+15          14        1.080418e+14    189.059    0.0000 
Residual      8.120609e+14        1421    571471422208.591                      
Total         2.324647e+15        1435                                          
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                               Parameter Estimates                                                
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               model           Beta    Std. Error    Std. Beta       t        Sig           lower          upper 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         (Intercept)     527633.222    108183.223                   4.877    0.000     315417.244     739849.200 
            AREA_SQM      12777.523       367.479        0.584     34.771    0.000      12056.663      13498.382 
                 AGE     -24687.739      2754.845       -0.167     -8.962    0.000     -30091.739     -19283.740 
            PROX_CBD     -77131.323      5763.125       -0.263    -13.384    0.000     -88436.469     -65826.176 
      PROX_CHILDCARE    -318472.751    107959.512       -0.084     -2.950    0.003    -530249.889    -106695.613 
    PROX_ELDERLYCARE     185575.623     39901.864        0.090      4.651    0.000     107302.737     263848.510 
PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA      39163.254     11754.829        0.060      3.332    0.001      16104.571      62221.936 
            PROX_MRT    -294745.107     56916.367       -0.112     -5.179    0.000    -406394.234    -183095.980 
           PROX_PARK     570504.807     65507.029        0.150      8.709    0.000     442003.938     699005.677 
    PROX_PRIMARY_SCH     159856.136     60234.599        0.062      2.654    0.008      41697.849     278014.424 
  PROX_SHOPPING_MALL    -220947.251     36561.832       -0.115     -6.043    0.000    -292668.213    -149226.288 
       PROX_BUS_STOP     682482.221    134513.243        0.134      5.074    0.000     418616.359     946348.082 
         NO_Of_UNITS       -245.480        87.947       -0.053     -2.791    0.005       -418.000        -72.961 
     FAMILY_FRIENDLY     146307.576     46893.021        0.057      3.120    0.002      54320.593     238294.560 
            FREEHOLD     350599.812     48506.485        0.136      7.228    0.000     255447.802     445751.821 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now, we have only statistically significant variables.

5.4.5 Publication Quality Table: gtsummary method

In the code chunk below, tbl_regression() is used to create a well formatted regression report using gtsummary package that provides an elegant and flexible way to create publication-ready summary tables in R.

gtsummary
tbl_regression(condo.mlr1, intercept = TRUE)
Characteristic Beta 95% CI1 p-value
(Intercept) 527,633 315,417, 739,849 <0.001
AREA_SQM 12,778 12,057, 13,498 <0.001
AGE -24,688 -30,092, -19,284 <0.001
PROX_CBD -77,131 -88,436, -65,826 <0.001
PROX_CHILDCARE -318,473 -530,250, -106,696 0.003
PROX_ELDERLYCARE 185,576 107,303, 263,849 <0.001
PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA 39,163 16,105, 62,222 <0.001
PROX_MRT -294,745 -406,394, -183,096 <0.001
PROX_PARK 570,505 442,004, 699,006 <0.001
PROX_PRIMARY_SCH 159,856 41,698, 278,014 0.008
PROX_SHOPPING_MALL -220,947 -292,668, -149,226 <0.001
PROX_BUS_STOP 682,482 418,616, 946,348 <0.001
NO_Of_UNITS -245 -418, -73 0.005
FAMILY_FRIENDLY 146,308 54,321, 238,295 0.002
FREEHOLD 350,600 255,448, 445,752 <0.001
1 CI = Confidence Interval

With this, model statistics can also be included in the report by either appending them to the report table by using add_glance_table() or adding as a table source note by using add_glance_source_note() as shown in the code chunk below.

Model statistics
tbl_regression(condo.mlr1, 
               intercept = TRUE) %>% 
  add_glance_source_note(
    label = list(sigma ~ "\U03C3"),
    include = c(r.squared, adj.r.squared, 
                AIC, statistic,
                p.value, sigma))
Characteristic Beta 95% CI1 p-value
(Intercept) 527,633 315,417, 739,849 <0.001
AREA_SQM 12,778 12,057, 13,498 <0.001
AGE -24,688 -30,092, -19,284 <0.001
PROX_CBD -77,131 -88,436, -65,826 <0.001
PROX_CHILDCARE -318,473 -530,250, -106,696 0.003
PROX_ELDERLYCARE 185,576 107,303, 263,849 <0.001
PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA 39,163 16,105, 62,222 <0.001
PROX_MRT -294,745 -406,394, -183,096 <0.001
PROX_PARK 570,505 442,004, 699,006 <0.001
PROX_PRIMARY_SCH 159,856 41,698, 278,014 0.008
PROX_SHOPPING_MALL -220,947 -292,668, -149,226 <0.001
PROX_BUS_STOP 682,482 418,616, 946,348 <0.001
NO_Of_UNITS -245 -418, -73 0.005
FAMILY_FRIENDLY 146,308 54,321, 238,295 0.002
FREEHOLD 350,600 255,448, 445,752 <0.001
R² = 0.651; Adjusted R² = 0.647; AIC = 42,967; Statistic = 189; p-value = <0.001; σ = 755,957
1 CI = Confidence Interval

5.4.6 Checking for Multicollinearity

Let us check if there is any sign of multicollinearity using ols_vif_tol() of olsrr package

Multicollinearity check
ols_vif_tol(condo.mlr1)
              Variables Tolerance      VIF
1              AREA_SQM 0.8728554 1.145665
2                   AGE 0.7071275 1.414172
3              PROX_CBD 0.6356147 1.573280
4        PROX_CHILDCARE 0.3066019 3.261559
5      PROX_ELDERLYCARE 0.6598479 1.515501
6  PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA 0.7510311 1.331503
7              PROX_MRT 0.5236090 1.909822
8             PROX_PARK 0.8279261 1.207837
9      PROX_PRIMARY_SCH 0.4524628 2.210126
10   PROX_SHOPPING_MALL 0.6738795 1.483945
11        PROX_BUS_STOP 0.3514118 2.845664
12          NO_Of_UNITS 0.6901036 1.449058
13      FAMILY_FRIENDLY 0.7244157 1.380423
14             FREEHOLD 0.6931163 1.442759

We can conclude that there are no sign of multicollinearity among the independent variables as VIF of the independent variables are less than 10.

5.4.7 Test for Non-Linearity

In the code chunk below, the ols_plot_resid_fit() of olsrr package is used to perform linearity assumption test.

Non-Linearity test
ols_plot_resid_fit(condo.mlr1)

We can conclude that the relationships between the dependent variable and independent variables are linear as most of the data poitns are scattered around the 0 line.

5.4.8 Test for Normality Assumption

The code chunk below uses ols_plot_resid_hist() of olsrr package to perform normality assumption test.

Normality Assumption Test
ols_plot_resid_hist(condo.mlr1)

It is shown that the residual of the multiple linear regression model (i.e. condo.mlr1) resembles normal distribution.

5.4.9 Testing for Spatial Autocorrelation

In order to perform spatial autocorrelation test, let us perform the following steps

  1. Convert condo_resale.sf from sf data frame into a SpatialPointsDataFrame.

  2. Convert condo_resale.res.sf from simple feature object into a SpatialPointsDataFrame because spdep package can only process sp conformed spatial data objects.

  3. Display the distribution of the residuals on an interactive map

Spatial autocorrelation test
mlr.output <- as.data.frame(condo.mlr1$residuals)
condo_resale.res.sf <- cbind(condo_resale.sf, 
                        condo.mlr1$residuals) %>%
rename(`MLR_RES` = `condo.mlr1.residuals`)
condo_resale.sp <- as_Spatial(condo_resale.res.sf)

Let us visualise the spatial distribution using below code chunk

Mapping the data
tm_shape(mpsz_svy21)+
  tmap_options(check.and.fix = TRUE) +
  tm_polygons(alpha = 0.4) +
tm_shape(condo_resale.res.sf) +  
  tm_dots(col = "MLR_RES",
          alpha = 0.6,
          style="quantile") +
  tmap_mode("view")+
  tm_view(set.zoom.limits = c(11,14))
tmap mode set to interactive viewing
Warning: The shape mpsz_svy21 is invalid (after reprojection). See
sf::st_is_valid
Variable(s) "MLR_RES" contains positive and negative values, so midpoint is set to 0. Set midpoint = NA to show the full spectrum of the color palette.

The figure above reveal that there is sign of spatial autocorrelation.

Let us double check by performing Moran’s I test

Following steps will be performed

  1. Compute the distance-based weight matrix by using dnearneigh() function of spdep.

  2. Convert the output neighbours lists (i.e. nb) into a spatial weights using nb2listw() of spdep packge.

  3. Conduct Moran’s I test for residual spatial autocorrelation by using lm.morantest() of spdep package.

Moran’s I test
nb <- dnearneigh(coordinates(condo_resale.sp), 0, 1500, longlat = FALSE)
nb_lw <- nb2listw(nb, style = 'W')
lm.morantest(condo.mlr1, nb_lw)

    Global Moran I for regression residuals

data:  
model: lm(formula = SELLING_PRICE ~ AREA_SQM + AGE + PROX_CBD +
PROX_CHILDCARE + PROX_ELDERLYCARE + PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA + PROX_MRT +
PROX_PARK + PROX_PRIMARY_SCH + PROX_SHOPPING_MALL + PROX_BUS_STOP +
NO_Of_UNITS + FAMILY_FRIENDLY + FREEHOLD, data = condo_resale.sf)
weights: nb_lw

Moran I statistic standard deviate = 24.366, p-value < 2.2e-16
alternative hypothesis: greater
sample estimates:
Observed Moran I      Expectation         Variance 
    1.438876e-01    -5.487594e-03     3.758259e-05 

Since the Observed Global Moran I = 0.1424418 which is greater than 0, we can infer than the residuals resemble cluster distribution.

5.5 Hedonic Pricing Models using GWmodel

Let us model hedonic pricing using both the fixed and adaptive bandwidth schemes

5.5.1 Computing fixed bandwidth

In the code chunk below bw.gwr() of GWModel package is used to determine the optimal fixed bandwidth to use in the model.

Fixed bandwidth
bw.fixed <- bw.gwr(formula = SELLING_PRICE ~ AREA_SQM + AGE + PROX_CBD + 
                     PROX_CHILDCARE + PROX_ELDERLYCARE  + PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA + 
                     PROX_MRT   + PROX_PARK + PROX_PRIMARY_SCH + 
                     PROX_SHOPPING_MALL + PROX_BUS_STOP + NO_Of_UNITS + 
                     FAMILY_FRIENDLY + FREEHOLD, 
                   data=condo_resale.sp, 
                   approach="CV", 
                   kernel="gaussian", 
                   adaptive=FALSE, 
                   longlat=FALSE)
Fixed bandwidth: 17660.96 CV score: 8.259118e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 10917.26 CV score: 7.970454e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 6749.419 CV score: 7.273273e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 4173.553 CV score: 6.300006e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 2581.58 CV score: 5.404958e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 1597.687 CV score: 4.857515e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 989.6077 CV score: 4.722431e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 613.7939 CV score: 1.378294e+16 
Fixed bandwidth: 1221.873 CV score: 4.778717e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 846.0596 CV score: 4.791629e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 1078.325 CV score: 4.751406e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 934.7772 CV score: 4.72518e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 1023.495 CV score: 4.730305e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 968.6643 CV score: 4.721317e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 955.7206 CV score: 4.722072e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 976.6639 CV score: 4.721387e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 963.7202 CV score: 4.721484e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 971.7199 CV score: 4.721293e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 973.6083 CV score: 4.721309e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 970.5527 CV score: 4.721295e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 972.4412 CV score: 4.721296e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 971.2741 CV score: 4.721292e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 970.9985 CV score: 4.721293e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 971.4443 CV score: 4.721292e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 971.5496 CV score: 4.721293e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 971.3793 CV score: 4.721292e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 971.3391 CV score: 4.721292e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 971.3143 CV score: 4.721292e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 971.3545 CV score: 4.721292e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 971.3296 CV score: 4.721292e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 971.345 CV score: 4.721292e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 971.3355 CV score: 4.721292e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 971.3413 CV score: 4.721292e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 971.3377 CV score: 4.721292e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 971.34 CV score: 4.721292e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 971.3405 CV score: 4.721292e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 971.3408 CV score: 4.721292e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 971.3403 CV score: 4.721292e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 971.3406 CV score: 4.721292e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 971.3404 CV score: 4.721292e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 971.3405 CV score: 4.721292e+14 
Fixed bandwidth: 971.3405 CV score: 4.721292e+14 

The result shows that the recommended bandwidth is 971.3398 metres

5.5.2 GWRModel method - Fixed bandwidth

Let us calibrate the gwr model using fixed bandwidth and gaussian kernel.

GWR- Fixed bandwidth
gwr.fixed <- gwr.basic(formula = SELLING_PRICE ~ AREA_SQM + AGE + PROX_CBD + 
                         PROX_CHILDCARE + PROX_ELDERLYCARE  + PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA + 
                         PROX_MRT   + PROX_PARK + PROX_PRIMARY_SCH + 
                         PROX_SHOPPING_MALL + PROX_BUS_STOP + NO_Of_UNITS + 
                         FAMILY_FRIENDLY + FREEHOLD, 
                       data=condo_resale.sp, 
                       bw=bw.fixed, 
                       kernel = 'gaussian', 
                       longlat = FALSE)
gwr.fixed
   ***********************************************************************
   *                       Package   GWmodel                             *
   ***********************************************************************
   Program starts at: 2022-12-19 07:45:04 
   Call:
   gwr.basic(formula = SELLING_PRICE ~ AREA_SQM + AGE + PROX_CBD + 
    PROX_CHILDCARE + PROX_ELDERLYCARE + PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA + 
    PROX_MRT + PROX_PARK + PROX_PRIMARY_SCH + PROX_SHOPPING_MALL + 
    PROX_BUS_STOP + NO_Of_UNITS + FAMILY_FRIENDLY + FREEHOLD, 
    data = condo_resale.sp, bw = bw.fixed, kernel = "gaussian", 
    longlat = FALSE)

   Dependent (y) variable:  SELLING_PRICE
   Independent variables:  AREA_SQM AGE PROX_CBD PROX_CHILDCARE PROX_ELDERLYCARE PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA PROX_MRT PROX_PARK PROX_PRIMARY_SCH PROX_SHOPPING_MALL PROX_BUS_STOP NO_Of_UNITS FAMILY_FRIENDLY FREEHOLD
   Number of data points: 1436
   ***********************************************************************
   *                    Results of Global Regression                     *
   ***********************************************************************

   Call:
    lm(formula = formula, data = data)

   Residuals:
     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
-3470778  -298119   -23481   248917 12234210 

   Coefficients:
                          Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
   (Intercept)           527633.22  108183.22   4.877 1.20e-06 ***
   AREA_SQM               12777.52     367.48  34.771  < 2e-16 ***
   AGE                   -24687.74    2754.84  -8.962  < 2e-16 ***
   PROX_CBD              -77131.32    5763.12 -13.384  < 2e-16 ***
   PROX_CHILDCARE       -318472.75  107959.51  -2.950 0.003231 ** 
   PROX_ELDERLYCARE      185575.62   39901.86   4.651 3.61e-06 ***
   PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA   39163.25   11754.83   3.332 0.000885 ***
   PROX_MRT             -294745.11   56916.37  -5.179 2.56e-07 ***
   PROX_PARK             570504.81   65507.03   8.709  < 2e-16 ***
   PROX_PRIMARY_SCH      159856.14   60234.60   2.654 0.008046 ** 
   PROX_SHOPPING_MALL   -220947.25   36561.83  -6.043 1.93e-09 ***
   PROX_BUS_STOP         682482.22  134513.24   5.074 4.42e-07 ***
   NO_Of_UNITS             -245.48      87.95  -2.791 0.005321 ** 
   FAMILY_FRIENDLY       146307.58   46893.02   3.120 0.001845 ** 
   FREEHOLD              350599.81   48506.48   7.228 7.98e-13 ***

   ---Significance stars
   Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1 
   Residual standard error: 756000 on 1421 degrees of freedom
   Multiple R-squared: 0.6507
   Adjusted R-squared: 0.6472 
   F-statistic: 189.1 on 14 and 1421 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16 
   ***Extra Diagnostic information
   Residual sum of squares: 8.120609e+14
   Sigma(hat): 752522.9
   AIC:  42966.76
   AICc:  42967.14
   BIC:  41731.39
   ***********************************************************************
   *          Results of Geographically Weighted Regression              *
   ***********************************************************************

   *********************Model calibration information*********************
   Kernel function: gaussian 
   Fixed bandwidth: 971.3405 
   Regression points: the same locations as observations are used.
   Distance metric: Euclidean distance metric is used.

   ****************Summary of GWR coefficient estimates:******************
                               Min.     1st Qu.      Median     3rd Qu.
   Intercept            -3.5988e+07 -5.1998e+05  7.6780e+05  1.7412e+06
   AREA_SQM              1.0003e+03  5.2758e+03  7.4740e+03  1.2301e+04
   AGE                  -1.3475e+05 -2.0813e+04 -8.6260e+03 -3.7784e+03
   PROX_CBD             -7.7047e+07 -2.3608e+05 -8.3600e+04  3.4646e+04
   PROX_CHILDCARE       -6.0097e+06 -3.3667e+05 -9.7425e+04  2.9007e+05
   PROX_ELDERLYCARE     -3.5000e+06 -1.5970e+05  3.1971e+04  1.9577e+05
   PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA -3.0170e+06 -8.2013e+04  7.0749e+04  2.2612e+05
   PROX_MRT             -3.5282e+06 -6.5836e+05 -1.8833e+05  3.6922e+04
   PROX_PARK            -1.2062e+06 -2.1732e+05  3.5383e+04  4.1335e+05
   PROX_PRIMARY_SCH     -2.2695e+07 -1.7066e+05  4.8472e+04  5.1555e+05
   PROX_SHOPPING_MALL   -7.2585e+06 -1.6684e+05 -1.0517e+04  1.5923e+05
   PROX_BUS_STOP        -1.4676e+06 -4.5207e+04  3.7601e+05  1.1664e+06
   NO_Of_UNITS          -1.3170e+03 -2.4822e+02 -3.0846e+01  2.5496e+02
   FAMILY_FRIENDLY      -2.2749e+06 -1.1140e+05  7.6214e+03  1.6107e+05
   FREEHOLD             -9.2067e+06  3.8073e+04  1.5169e+05  3.7528e+05
                             Max.
   Intercept            112793548
   AREA_SQM                 21575
   AGE                     434201
   PROX_CBD               2704596
   PROX_CHILDCARE         1654087
   PROX_ELDERLYCARE      38867814
   PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA  78515730
   PROX_MRT               3124316
   PROX_PARK             18122425
   PROX_PRIMARY_SCH       4637503
   PROX_SHOPPING_MALL     1529952
   PROX_BUS_STOP         11342182
   NO_Of_UNITS              12907
   FAMILY_FRIENDLY        1720744
   FREEHOLD               6073636
   ************************Diagnostic information*************************
   Number of data points: 1436 
   Effective number of parameters (2trace(S) - trace(S'S)): 438.3804 
   Effective degrees of freedom (n-2trace(S) + trace(S'S)): 997.6196 
   AICc (GWR book, Fotheringham, et al. 2002, p. 61, eq 2.33): 42263.61 
   AIC (GWR book, Fotheringham, et al. 2002,GWR p. 96, eq. 4.22): 41632.36 
   BIC (GWR book, Fotheringham, et al. 2002,GWR p. 61, eq. 2.34): 42515.71 
   Residual sum of squares: 2.53407e+14 
   R-square value:  0.8909912 
   Adjusted R-square value:  0.8430417 

   ***********************************************************************
   Program stops at: 2022-12-19 07:45:06 

The report shows that the adjusted r-square of the gwr is 0.8430 which is significantly better than the global multiple linear regression model of 0.6472.

5.5.3 GWRModel method - Adaptive bandwidth

Let us calibrate the gwr-absed hedonic pricing model by using adaptive bandwidth approach.

Computing the adaptive bandwidth

In the code chunk below bw.gwr() of GWModel package is used to determine the optimal fixed bandwidth with adaptive = TRUE to use in the model.

Adaptive Bandwidth
bw.adaptive <- bw.gwr(formula = SELLING_PRICE ~ AREA_SQM + AGE  + 
                        PROX_CBD + PROX_CHILDCARE + PROX_ELDERLYCARE    + 
                        PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA + PROX_MRT + PROX_PARK + 
                        PROX_PRIMARY_SCH + PROX_SHOPPING_MALL   + PROX_BUS_STOP + 
                        NO_Of_UNITS + FAMILY_FRIENDLY + FREEHOLD, 
                      data=condo_resale.sp, 
                      approach="CV", 
                      kernel="gaussian", 
                      adaptive=TRUE, 
                      longlat=FALSE)
Adaptive bandwidth: 895 CV score: 7.952401e+14 
Adaptive bandwidth: 561 CV score: 7.667364e+14 
Adaptive bandwidth: 354 CV score: 6.953454e+14 
Adaptive bandwidth: 226 CV score: 6.15223e+14 
Adaptive bandwidth: 147 CV score: 5.674373e+14 
Adaptive bandwidth: 98 CV score: 5.426745e+14 
Adaptive bandwidth: 68 CV score: 5.168117e+14 
Adaptive bandwidth: 49 CV score: 4.859631e+14 
Adaptive bandwidth: 37 CV score: 4.646518e+14 
Adaptive bandwidth: 30 CV score: 4.422088e+14 
Adaptive bandwidth: 25 CV score: 4.430816e+14 
Adaptive bandwidth: 32 CV score: 4.505602e+14 
Adaptive bandwidth: 27 CV score: 4.462172e+14 
Adaptive bandwidth: 30 CV score: 4.422088e+14 

The result reveals that 30 is the recommended data points to be used.

Constructing the adaptive bandwidth gwr model

Let us calibrate the gwr-based hedonic pricing model by using adaptive bandwidth and gaussian kernel as shown in the code chunk below.

GWR - Adaptive Bandwidth
gwr.adaptive <- gwr.basic(formula = SELLING_PRICE ~ AREA_SQM + AGE + 
                            PROX_CBD + PROX_CHILDCARE + PROX_ELDERLYCARE + 
                            PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA + PROX_MRT + PROX_PARK + 
                            PROX_PRIMARY_SCH + PROX_SHOPPING_MALL + PROX_BUS_STOP + 
                            NO_Of_UNITS + FAMILY_FRIENDLY + FREEHOLD, 
                          data=condo_resale.sp, bw=bw.adaptive, 
                          kernel = 'gaussian', 
                          adaptive=TRUE, 
                          longlat = FALSE)
gwr.adaptive
   ***********************************************************************
   *                       Package   GWmodel                             *
   ***********************************************************************
   Program starts at: 2022-12-19 07:45:17 
   Call:
   gwr.basic(formula = SELLING_PRICE ~ AREA_SQM + AGE + PROX_CBD + 
    PROX_CHILDCARE + PROX_ELDERLYCARE + PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA + 
    PROX_MRT + PROX_PARK + PROX_PRIMARY_SCH + PROX_SHOPPING_MALL + 
    PROX_BUS_STOP + NO_Of_UNITS + FAMILY_FRIENDLY + FREEHOLD, 
    data = condo_resale.sp, bw = bw.adaptive, kernel = "gaussian", 
    adaptive = TRUE, longlat = FALSE)

   Dependent (y) variable:  SELLING_PRICE
   Independent variables:  AREA_SQM AGE PROX_CBD PROX_CHILDCARE PROX_ELDERLYCARE PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA PROX_MRT PROX_PARK PROX_PRIMARY_SCH PROX_SHOPPING_MALL PROX_BUS_STOP NO_Of_UNITS FAMILY_FRIENDLY FREEHOLD
   Number of data points: 1436
   ***********************************************************************
   *                    Results of Global Regression                     *
   ***********************************************************************

   Call:
    lm(formula = formula, data = data)

   Residuals:
     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
-3470778  -298119   -23481   248917 12234210 

   Coefficients:
                          Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
   (Intercept)           527633.22  108183.22   4.877 1.20e-06 ***
   AREA_SQM               12777.52     367.48  34.771  < 2e-16 ***
   AGE                   -24687.74    2754.84  -8.962  < 2e-16 ***
   PROX_CBD              -77131.32    5763.12 -13.384  < 2e-16 ***
   PROX_CHILDCARE       -318472.75  107959.51  -2.950 0.003231 ** 
   PROX_ELDERLYCARE      185575.62   39901.86   4.651 3.61e-06 ***
   PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA   39163.25   11754.83   3.332 0.000885 ***
   PROX_MRT             -294745.11   56916.37  -5.179 2.56e-07 ***
   PROX_PARK             570504.81   65507.03   8.709  < 2e-16 ***
   PROX_PRIMARY_SCH      159856.14   60234.60   2.654 0.008046 ** 
   PROX_SHOPPING_MALL   -220947.25   36561.83  -6.043 1.93e-09 ***
   PROX_BUS_STOP         682482.22  134513.24   5.074 4.42e-07 ***
   NO_Of_UNITS             -245.48      87.95  -2.791 0.005321 ** 
   FAMILY_FRIENDLY       146307.58   46893.02   3.120 0.001845 ** 
   FREEHOLD              350599.81   48506.48   7.228 7.98e-13 ***

   ---Significance stars
   Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1 
   Residual standard error: 756000 on 1421 degrees of freedom
   Multiple R-squared: 0.6507
   Adjusted R-squared: 0.6472 
   F-statistic: 189.1 on 14 and 1421 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16 
   ***Extra Diagnostic information
   Residual sum of squares: 8.120609e+14
   Sigma(hat): 752522.9
   AIC:  42966.76
   AICc:  42967.14
   BIC:  41731.39
   ***********************************************************************
   *          Results of Geographically Weighted Regression              *
   ***********************************************************************

   *********************Model calibration information*********************
   Kernel function: gaussian 
   Adaptive bandwidth: 30 (number of nearest neighbours)
   Regression points: the same locations as observations are used.
   Distance metric: Euclidean distance metric is used.

   ****************Summary of GWR coefficient estimates:******************
                               Min.     1st Qu.      Median     3rd Qu.
   Intercept            -1.3487e+08 -2.4669e+05  7.7928e+05  1.6194e+06
   AREA_SQM              3.3188e+03  5.6285e+03  7.7825e+03  1.2738e+04
   AGE                  -9.6746e+04 -2.9288e+04 -1.4043e+04 -5.6119e+03
   PROX_CBD             -2.5330e+06 -1.6256e+05 -7.7242e+04  2.6624e+03
   PROX_CHILDCARE       -1.2790e+06 -2.0175e+05  8.7158e+03  3.7778e+05
   PROX_ELDERLYCARE     -1.6212e+06 -9.2050e+04  6.1029e+04  2.8184e+05
   PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA -7.2686e+06 -3.0350e+04  4.5869e+04  2.4613e+05
   PROX_MRT             -4.3781e+07 -6.7282e+05 -2.2115e+05 -7.4593e+04
   PROX_PARK            -2.9020e+06 -1.6782e+05  1.1601e+05  4.6572e+05
   PROX_PRIMARY_SCH     -8.6418e+05 -1.6627e+05 -7.7853e+03  4.3222e+05
   PROX_SHOPPING_MALL   -1.8272e+06 -1.3175e+05 -1.4049e+04  1.3799e+05
   PROX_BUS_STOP        -2.0579e+06 -7.1461e+04  4.1104e+05  1.2071e+06
   NO_Of_UNITS          -2.1993e+03 -2.3685e+02 -3.4699e+01  1.1657e+02
   FAMILY_FRIENDLY      -5.9879e+05 -5.0927e+04  2.6173e+04  2.2481e+05
   FREEHOLD             -1.6340e+05  4.0765e+04  1.9023e+05  3.7960e+05
                            Max.
   Intercept            18758355
   AREA_SQM                23064
   AGE                     13303
   PROX_CBD             11346650
   PROX_CHILDCARE        2892127
   PROX_ELDERLYCARE      2465671
   PROX_URA_GROWTH_AREA  7384059
   PROX_MRT              1186242
   PROX_PARK             2588497
   PROX_PRIMARY_SCH      3381462
   PROX_SHOPPING_MALL   38038564
   PROX_BUS_STOP        12081592
   NO_Of_UNITS              1010
   FAMILY_FRIENDLY       2072414
   FREEHOLD              1813995
   ************************Diagnostic information*************************
   Number of data points: 1436 
   Effective number of parameters (2trace(S) - trace(S'S)): 350.3088 
   Effective degrees of freedom (n-2trace(S) + trace(S'S)): 1085.691 
   AICc (GWR book, Fotheringham, et al. 2002, p. 61, eq 2.33): 41982.22 
   AIC (GWR book, Fotheringham, et al. 2002,GWR p. 96, eq. 4.22): 41546.74 
   BIC (GWR book, Fotheringham, et al. 2002,GWR p. 61, eq. 2.34): 41914.08 
   Residual sum of squares: 2.528227e+14 
   R-square value:  0.8912425 
   Adjusted R-square value:  0.8561185 

   ***********************************************************************
   Program stops at: 2022-12-19 07:45:19 

It reveals that the adjusted r-square of the gwr is 0.8561 which is significantly better than the globel multiple linear regression model of 0.6472.

5.5.4 Visualising GWR Output

The output feature class table includes fields for observed and predicted y values, condition number (cond), Local R2, residuals, and explanatory variable coefficients and standard errors. They are all stored in a SpatialPointsDataFrame or SpatialPolygonsDataFrame object integrated with fit.points, GWR coefficient estimates, y value, predicted values, coefficient standard errors and t-values in its “data” slot in an object called SDF of the output list.

GWR Output
condo_resale.sf.adaptive <- st_as_sf(gwr.adaptive$SDF) %>%
  st_transform(crs=3414)
condo_resale.sf.adaptive.svy21 <- st_transform(condo_resale.sf.adaptive, 3414)

gwr.adaptive.output <- as.data.frame(gwr.adaptive$SDF)
condo_resale.sf.adaptive <- cbind(condo_resale.res.sf, as.matrix(gwr.adaptive.output))

summary(gwr.adaptive$SDF$yhat)
    Min.  1st Qu.   Median     Mean  3rd Qu.     Max. 
  171347  1102001  1385528  1751842  1982307 13887901 

5.5.5 Visualising local R2

The code chunks below is used to create an interactive point symbol map to visualise local R2 values.

Mapping Local R2
tmap_mode("view")
tmap mode set to interactive viewing
Mapping Local R2
tm_shape(mpsz_svy21)+
  tm_polygons(alpha = 0.1) +
tm_shape(condo_resale.sf.adaptive) +  
  tm_dots(col = "Local_R2",
          border.col = "gray60",
          border.lwd = 1) +
  tm_view(set.zoom.limits = c(11,14))
Warning: The shape mpsz_svy21 is invalid (after reprojection). See
sf::st_is_valid

We can see that the places which have darker points indicate that the local regression model fits well whereas very low values indicate the local model is performing poorly. Mapping these Local R2 values helps us to understand where GWR predicts well and where it predicts poorly which may provide clues about important variables that may be missing from the regression model.

5.5.6 Visualizing URA Planning Region

The code chunks below is used to create an static point symbol map to visualise local R2 by planning region (Here, Central region)

Mapping URA Planning region
tm_shape(mpsz_svy21[mpsz_svy21$REGION_N=="CENTRAL REGION", ])+
  tm_polygons()+
tm_shape(condo_resale.sf.adaptive) + 
  tm_bubbles(col = "Local_R2",
           size = 0.15,
           border.col = "gray60",
           border.lwd = 1)+
  tmap_mode("plot")
tmap mode set to plotting
Warning: The shape mpsz_svy21[mpsz_svy21$REGION_N == "CENTRAL REGION", ] is
invalid. See sf::st_is_valid

In the above map, we can see that the places which have darker static point symbols indicate that the local regression model fits well whereas very low values indicate the local model is performing poorly.

6. Conclusion

So, in this study, we have seen in detail how to build model with geographically weighted regression and the various steps in preparing the final data such as test for normality assumption, tests for non-linearity, checking multi collinearity. Some of the new concepts mentioned in this study are building publication table using Ordinary Least Square Regression OLSR) method and gtsummary method. Stay tuned for upcoming sections………………..